We are approaching Christmas and the end of the year - a good time to take a look at the Bitcoin course. As we have learned in recent weeks, this is a very positive view. So positive that it is almost boring.
Nevertheless, this is worthwhile, or on the background of the course development - on the one hand one can follow Bitcoin's very exciting story this year; secondly, one learns the influence of wildcards - technical analyzes are what good, however, these unexpected events can not predict.
But enough of the introductory words - let us begin!
As we already see at first sight - it went upwards. Within this year the price has risen from 401. 52 EUR (419. 34 USD) to currently 793. 79 EUR (829. 03 USD) - which corresponds to a price gain of whopping 97. 6%!
Nevertheless, the way to the (current) top was not simply a constant way upwards - in concrete terms one can recognize different "dramas" in the course of which we want to consider a few:
Trading with DAO token (green)
- The DAO hack (graublau)
- Thanks to Brexit (not The bitcoin halving - a lot of smoke around nothing (not shown)
- The big fall thanks to Bitfinex (blue)
- Trump pumps Bitcoin (not shown)
- Bitcoin as security (yellow)
- Mike Hearn and the "end" of Bitcoin The year started turbulently: Mike Hearn - a not unimportant Bitcoin Developer - announced on January 14 his exit from the Bitcoin community - and in the context, that Bitcoin dead.
- DAO - Ascent and Fall
- The impact of the DAO was demonstrated by the fact that not only Bitcoin internal events can have an influence on the price of Bitcoin. The decentralized autonomous organization was a kind of decentralized venture fund, in which anyone interested could participate. It was based on ethereum. The idea was so interesting to many, that the DAO Token sale - so to speak the ICO of the DAO - a total of 140 million US dollars during this Token Sales in Ether were collected.No wonder, therefore, that the DAO token, which is ultimately the shares in the DAO, were excellently traded on Exchanges. Many of those who bought DAO Token Sale in the DAO now sold the DAO tokens on different exchanges - which certainly aroused Bitcoin's course.
That was all right - until an anonymous hacker took advantage of a gap in the DAO to clear it too empty - the courses of Ethereum and Bitcoin fell into the bottomless. How fast a rally can come to an end! In addition to the loss of confidence, another reason for the course was that the course three weeks earlier was too abruptly: If we compare the green-colored development with the yellow-colored comparison in the above picture, we notice that the time scales were quite different - ultimately, the surge in June was a hype and reminded of the dramatic price rise at the end of 2013. Consolidation was inevitable.
Thanks to Brexit
Well, what could save the Bitcoin course after the DAO Exploit? Probably only one event that shook Europe - the British's vote on Brexit! On June 23, 2016, a large part of the electorate of Great Britain voted for an exit from the EU. The economic worries that were expected with such a move led to people seeing their hope in Bitcoin and spending money as a security.
Bitcoin as a hedge fund will have meaning again later in the year - but by then there is still a long way to go. The Bitcoin Halving - a lot of smoke for nothing The bitcoin halving - the reduction of the mining rewards from 25 BTC to 12. 5 BTC - took place on July 9th. A dramatic reduction in the mining rewards could have dramatic consequences - as some people suspect. One side feared that the halving of the Mining Rewards would lead to a significant portion of the miners getting out. This would cause the hashing power of the network to drop and the Mining Difficulty would be too hard for this new hashing power. Yes, it would be adjusted within two weeks - but until then, bitcoin transactions would be slower, so people would lose confidence in Bitcoin, want to sell bitcoin, which is not the slowness of transactions ... ultimately, they feared a cryptversion of a bank runs, where the course falls into the cellar.
Others pointed out that the halving of the Mining Rewards bitcoin is improving - the inflation rate would eventually be halved. It was pointed out that after the first Halving the course also went through the ceiling - something corresponding hoped for those of the Halving.
Well - and what happened? Not much. The price remained more or less constant at EUR 589 (approx. USD 615). Ultimately, the Bitcoin ecosystem has been quite stable since the last halving.The Great Fall thanks to Bitfinex Well, the 3rd of August was a good lesson on the role of Exchanges in the Bitcoin ecosystem. On August 2 Bitfinex lost through a hack 120,000 BTC.
The course could catch up again in the next days. Still, some people were skeptical as to whether Bitcoin could recover from this hack.
Well, as the time showed, the hack was not enough to destroy the confidence in Bitcoin. Nevertheless, this case showed how much the temporary trust in Bitcoin depends on the security of the Exchanges.
Trump pumps Bitcoin
We've already learned from Brexit that politics can have an impact on the Bitcoin course. Ultimately, the Brexit was remembered in November: a controversial political development provided for a pump. So the bitcoin rate here rose almost instantaneously - after all, by 3%. Overall, the Trump effect on Bitcoin was not dramatic. However, through Brexit and Trump, one could learn that people trust Bitcoin as a hedge fund - a development which is now shaping the rest of the year ... Bitcoin as a security
This development ultimately started before Trump: Through the development of the Fiat currencies in China, India or Venezuela, many put their hope in Bitcoin - one tries to get money in the end before the value depreciation or the abolition of the cash.
This trend has been going on for several months now. To date, the positive developments in the currency market, which are parallel to these developments, are not ending for Bitcoin's positive development.
Bitcoin - Wildcards game
Well, that's the year in Bitcoin. As we have seen, it can happen that a hack of an Exchanges or a development in the world economy also in the last days of the year 2016 stamped the bitcoin course, we will see it.
What could we learn so far? As I like to write weekly the technical analyzes of the Bitcoin course, you can also see the boundaries of these: you can see certain developments, assess whether trends continue or come to an end - but dramatic, previously unanticipated events like a hack or Statements by important (former) members of the Bitcoin scene can end such a trend abruptly!
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. They are merely an estimate of the analyst.
BTC-ECHOImage based on data from cex. io